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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.